Ag markets face weather and politics

August 10, 2026

Key points from this story:

• Geopolitics and weather unpredictable
• Crop prices influenced by weather, politics
• Weather extremes increase production risk
• Early frost concern after late seeding
• Political trade barriers affect crop markets
• US trade stance increases market volatility

Now this is not something particularly new. Crop prices have always been influenced by both forces.

On the weather side, weather issues in key crop production areas have long sent shudders through crop markets as concerns are raised regarding possible production shortages if crops deteriorate from some weather-induces stress.

Widespread drought, or excess rains in a key crop growing region puts pressure on supplies, which ripple into markets reacting based on supply worries.

Of course it does seem weather is dealing us all more extreme conditions, whether that is unusual flooding based on rains, or extreme periods of heat.

And certainly at a recent crop tour there was talk about what an early frost might do to crops this year which were generally seeded later than normal in many areas. An 'open' fall with extended good weather will be a must in many regions if all the crop is to reach maturity and end up safely in the bin. It is a situation one worries may only get worse.

While I will give naysayers some credit in questioning whether weather change is man-made or if it is just long-term weather patterns, it is in either case clear weather patterns are changing and those changes are manifesting in more extreme weather. That change will make growing crops more challenging if not a pure gamble in some regions.

As for politics, the short-sighted view of politicians looking to score some 'political' points have also long been an issue in terms of selling crops.

In some cases politicians erect trade barriers to protect domestic producers, and those one can at least appreciate. Losing domestic food production, and leaving access to that food to other countries is a path probably best avoided, as even trusted neighbours can change their perspective in a heartbeat.

Anyone doubting that only needs to look at the North American reality today where the trusted Canadian trade partner United States has come under control of a president whose vision of trade is to bludgeon and bully trade partners with zero concern for what it does to domestic consumers or long-term international relationships.

With US president Donald Trump waking with daily tantrums pointed at almost everyone, trade with the huge American market is at best a minefield.

So while weather and politics have always been ag trade influences, the combo of climate change and Trump do make things more volatile in 2026.