Nhl draft often a crapshoot

Key points from this story:

• NHL draft is a gamble
• Top picks can flop
• Scouts project future performance
• Past drafts show mixed success
• Hindsight reveals poor choices
• Teams miss on star players

To say the National Hockey League draft of 18-year-old players is an inexact science is stating the obvious. It's more like a crapshoot. Roll the dice and hope, baby. But NHL jobs (scouting directors and general managers specifically) can oftentimes ride on the success or failure of picking junior players.

Now that the order of this year's draft, to be held June 26-27 in Buffalo, has been determined by last week's draft lottery, GMs and scouts can start to fret. Will this skinny 18-year-old with great puck handling skills turn into a superstar four years down the road? Or will he be relegated to a career in the minors? The toughest job for a professional hockey scout is to project a player's skill level three, four, five years into the future.

Over the years, there have been some exceptional picks; and there have been some duds.

In the 2015 draft, for example, Los Angeles Kings ignored the availability of Kirill Kaprizov when it was their turn to pick in the fourth round. At No. 134, the Kings selected Matt Schmaltz. Minnesota, picking at No. 135, went with Kaprizov. NHL point totals to date: Schmaltz zero; Kaprizov, likely en route to the Hall of Fame: 475 in 397 games.

How would Philadelphia Flyers' fortunes been changed for the better had they picked Cale Makar second overall in the 2017 draft? The superstar defenceman for Colorado Avalanche went No. 4 overall, while the Flyers opted for Nolan Patrick with the second pick. Patrick, besieged by injuries in his short career, scored 30 goals in three seasons with the Flyers before they sent him to Las Vegas (via Nashville) where he played part of one year (two goals) with the Golden Knights. Makar, meanwhile, is generally regarded as the NHL's best defenceman and is one of the key members of the perennial Stanley Cup favourites.

Edmonton Oilers goaltending woes are well known to NHL fans. So when the Oilers' fans look back on the 2017 draft, they saw that Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars was available when it was Edmonton's turn to pick in the first round. Instead of picking Oettinger and solidifying that position for perhaps a decade or more, they went instead with diminutive forward Kailer Yamamoto at No. 22. He played a couple of non-productive years with the Oilers and now plays a secondary role with Utah Mammoth.

While we're at it, let's pick on the Vancouver Canucks. Last-place finishers this season, the hapless Canucks took Ollie Juolevi fifth overall in 2016. He racked up a total of three points in his less than illustrious career in the NHL. Meanwhile, the team picking one spot later that year was Calgary Flames and they picked up Matthew Tkachuk, for nearly a decade a premier forward in the NHL and a two-time Stanley Cup champ with Florida.

Hindsight is 20/20. Scouts' jobs depend on 20/20 foresight.

Sports Comments

• Phillies' manager Rob Thomson, asked by The Athletic about his job security after a 9-19 start to the season: "I've never worried about that in my entire career. I worked for a guy for 28 years that, as the 'Seinfeld' episode will tell you, fires people like it's a bodily function. And it never bothered me." (Thomson was fired three days later, April 28.)
• Sean McIndoe of The Athletic on the Seattle Kraken: "They held down a playoff spot in the Pacific pillow fight for most of the year, then said 'just kidding' and finished 26th."
• Kyle Porter of Normal Sport, reviewing a multitude of newsworthy happenings recently in the world of golf, one of which was a tour player switching to irons made by the McLaren car company: "And, of course, Justin Rose linking up with (checks notes) a car company whose equipment he will hit golf balls with.
• Comedy guy Torben Rolfsen of Vancouver: "The Blue Jays' plane had a mechanical failure and they had to bus it from Phoenix to Anaheim. The Associated Press story literally said 'on a dark desert highway.' I don't know if they're using AI to write stories or Eagles' lyrics."
• Another one from Rolfsen: "Several teams have inquired about (Blue Jays' pitcher) Jeff Hoffman’s availability for July's home run derby."
• Janice Hough of leftmostsportsbabe.com: "The Orlando Magic were up 62-38 at half time with a 97.9 per cent chance of winning in a close-out Game 6. And they lost to the Detroit Pistons 93-79. Magic scored 19 points in the second half."
• Another one from Janice Hough: "Went to check on the Knicks-Hawks game and it's 83 to 36 at HALFTIME! Do Atlanta players have nonrefundable reservations in the Caribbean somewhere starting this weekend?"
• From Yahoo.com, on the mid-season Oilers-Penguins trade: "Trading Stuart Skinner to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Tristan Jarry was, more or less, the hockey equivalent of trading a chef who constantly burned food for an arsonist."
• Steve Simmons of the Toronto Sun: "My favourite Cavaliers player on name alone: Keon Ellis. Shouldn't he be playing for Maple Leaf Sports?"
• Care to comment? Email brucepenton2003@yahoo.ca